U.S. Commercial Mortgage Lending Predicted Dive 20 Percent in 2023

Based on an updated baseline forecast released this week by the Mortgage Bankers Association, total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is expected to fall to $654 billion this year, which is a 20 percent decline from $816 billion in 2022.

Multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to drop to $375 billion in 2023 – a 14 percent decline from last year’s expected total of $437 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending will rebound in 2024 to $829 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $456 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

“Higher interest rates, uncertainty about property values, and questions about the outlook for the cash flows of some properties led to a slowdown in commercial real estate transactions and financing beginning in the middle of 2022,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Head of Commercial Real Estate Research. “That slowdown is likely to persist through much of this year as investors, lenders, and others look for greater transparency into the markets. We expect maturing loans to begin to break the logjam and provide greater clarity as this year goes on. However, it may take until 2025 for volumes to get back to previous years’ levels.”

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