What goes up must come down — unless you’re talking about the Aspen-area real estate market.
The talk of the town recently has related to record-breaking sale prices, just weeks apart. On April 11, The Ranch at Owl Creek, a 12,665-square-foot home on over 60 acres of land in unincorporated Pitkin County, sold for $77 million. That was followed by a 22,000-square-foot property on Willoughby Way that sold for $108 million on a mere 2 acres of property.
A few days later, St. Benedict’s Monastery in Old Snowmass went on the market for a cool $150 million listing price.
The two aforementioned residential sales were the highest on record for the Aspen area and the state of Colorado, and as such, received a lot of press across the country, including Forbes and the Wall Street Journal.
The question everyone is asking is just how high can the Aspen-area market go? These recent nine-figure sales maintain Aspen’s status alongside the country’s elite real estate markets in states like Florida, New York and California. It is proof of the strength of the Aspen market and the fact that people are willing to see it as a viable place to invest big money. It also puts Aspen in its own category and separates it from other luxury ski-town markets like Vail and Telluride.
The next question is, what will the impact of these sales have on the rest of the Roaring Fork Valley market? The idea that the billionaires have pushed the millionaires out of Aspen is nothing new, and while there is some trickle-down effect in terms of home values, it’s important to keep in mind that the type of buyers who purchase homes at astronomical prices is a very small pool to begin with. It’s difficult to say if these record-breaking prices will have much of a direct impact on pricing. It’s more likely that other factors, such as low inventory and high demand, are going to continue to be the primary reason the market remains strong.
It’s also important to keep these specific sales in context. These properties garnered high sales prices because of their uniqueness. In 2023, Pitkin County reduced the house-size cap to 9,250 square feet, which might explain why a 22,000-square-foot property would now be in such high demand — no one will be able to build a home that large again. It’s going to maintain its uniqueness in the market simply because you can’t replicate it.
That said, we are seeing rising prices in the midvalley. If you look at the inventory for anything below $4 million, it starts to get very thin while there are plenty of homes in the range of $4 million to $5 million. That’s a pretty big jump from three or four years ago.
We all know what makes Aspen attractive. It’s not just a resort but a real town with a storied history and a sophisticated cultural, arts and culinary scene. There are geographical constraints, especially in downtown Aspen, meaning that it’s almost completely built out with very few parcels left. The bottom line is real estate has always been a safer place to put money as an investment vehicle and when we’re talking about the kinds of numbers Aspen sales prices garner, we know big investors feel comfortable putting their money here.
A lot of people want to know who these buyers are that can come in and pay cash for a nine-figure property. The answer is there are all kinds. We see generational money, new money and international money from all over the world. There has also been a notable uptick in European investors who are tiring of the poor snow conditions that have riddled the Alps for the last few seasons.
It’s also important to keep in mind these big sale prices didn’t just appear out of nowhere but have been building to this level for some time. The same house that just sold for $108 million sold in 2021 for $72.5 million; and who can forget when Gorsuch Haus sold for $76.25 million in 2022 or when Tommy Hilfiger flipped his Aspen house for $50 million after purchasing it three months prior for just over $30 million.
Where is the ceiling? It appears some of these variables continue to push the watermark ever higher. The short answer is that we haven’t found it yet.
