Spring’s Housing Market Is About To Reach a Peak With ‘Outsized Impact’ Buyers Really Need Right Now
As strange as the housing market has gotten lately, certain seasonal rhythms still prevail. And despite being somewhat dampened by stubbornly high home prices, roller-coaster mortgage rates, and an unpredictable economy, the spring homebuying season is about to reach an apex that’s well worth taking advantage of.
“We’re moving into the period of the year when the number of newly listed homes tends to peak—usually in May or June,” notes Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com®, in her weekly analysis.
Granted, this seasonal pinnacle might not seem all that noticeable, since the number of new sellers listings their homes is still lower than it was at this time last year. For the week ending May 6, 16% fewer new homeowners listed their homes for sale. Still, this annual decline has been steadily shrinking week by week.
“Even though there is still a gap, it’s smaller than what was typical in most of March and April,” explains Hale.
And although new listings are down from last year, total inventory (of both new and old listings) is up 31% for the week ending May 6. In other words, there are plenty of homes for sale, although buyers might need to give stale listings a second look. This portends a potential boost to the overall housing market and offers hope to both buyers and sellers.
In short, the housing inventory is “evolving,” according to Hale. “While further moderation is needed, this is a welcome improvement that comes as new listings near their seasonal high point. Improvement now could have an outsized impact.”
What’s not so rosy? High mortgage rates are generally holding steady. The interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.35% in the week ending May 11, according to Freddie Mac. That’s a bit lower than last week’s 6.39%, but still high enough to make many buyers uncomfortable.
Further compounding buyers’ problems is that housing prices are still inching upward.
The national median list price came in at $430,000 in April, up from $424,000 in March. But for the week ending May 6, home prices grew at a rate of just 2.4% compared with last year. That’s its slowest growth rate since May 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was raging across the country.
While tapering home prices is a glimmer of positivity for homebuyers, it’s not enough to really temper their bottom lines quite yet.
“For potential first-time homebuyers, this means that affordability will continue to be a top concern,” explains Hale. “For potential sellers, this means equity is still relatively high.”
What the spring market’s peak means for home sellers
While sellers are understandably thrilled by higher home values, they might have to drop prices soon, since many homes have been sluggishly stuck on the market with no takers.
Home sales have slowed for the past 40 weeks, with homes spending an average of 16 days longer on the market for the week ending May 6 compared with the same week one year ago.
And home sellers might struggle as more properties hit the market in the coming weeks.
“As market competitiveness wanes, sellers may become more flexible,” says Hale. However, the “degree of slowing observed depends on your local market. For example, homes are spending a little over a week longer on the market compared to a year ago in the Midwest and Northeast, where we know housing markets have fared better as affordability keeps demand high.”
Yet in the South and West, homes spent two more weeks on the market for the week ending May 6 compared with a year ago.
“The key takeaway here is that while it’s important to understand national context, what really matters are the trends in your local market,” says Hale.